Atlas vs Monterrey Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atlas vs Monterrey
Match Preview
The model favours a draw between Atlas and Monterrey, projecting a scoreline of 2-2. Both teams have started the season strongly, each registering a win in their opening match. Atlas currently sits in 6th place, while Monterrey is in 4th, both with three points and identical goal differentials. This early stage of the season suggests both teams are relatively evenly matched. Atlas has shown some inconsistency in their recent form, with one victory, one draw, and three losses over their last five matches. However, their attacking performance in the opening game indicates potential, as they scored three goals despite conceding two. This gives them a solid foundation to build on as they look to improve their standing. On the other hand, Monterrey has enjoyed a more stable recent performance, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their ability to score consistently while maintaining a relatively strong defensive record suggests they could pose a significant challenge to Atlas. The model output indicates a balanced contest with a win probability close to even for both teams. However, the potential for defensive lapses could lead to unexpected goals against either side. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results from the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Atlas manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Monterrey score 1.40 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atlas vs Monterrey| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.20 | 2.72 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.54 | 3.18 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.64 | 3.37 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.53 | 3.10 | 2.56 | 2.06 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.54 | 3.18 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 1.97 | 1.79 | 1.68 | 1.98 | |
| 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.15 | 2.77 | 2.07 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 2.57 | 3.20 | 2.72 | 2.02 | 1.74 | 1.77 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.70 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monterrey leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Atlas and Monterrey, Monterrey has won 7 times, with Atlas drawing 3 matches and failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Monterrey, particularly highlighted by their 4-0 win and several other victories by at least two goals. Although there have been three draws, most encounters have been tightly contested, with Atlas managing to score only once in their last five meetings. The most recent draw dates back to April 2026, suggesting that Atlas has not won against Monterrey in a significant period.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtlas have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atlas 0-2 and lost to Atlas 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 13L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monterrey have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Monterrey 1-2 and beat Atlas 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 11L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtlas
No reported absences
Monterrey
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atlas have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Monterrey 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
