Leon vs CF Pachuca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Leon vs CF Pachuca
Match Preview
The model favours CF Pachuca to win against Leon, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. CF Pachuca currently sits at the top of the Liga MX standings, having won their only match of the season. With a strong goal differential of +3, they have shown an impressive offensive capability, scoring three goals while keeping a clean sheet. On the other hand, Leon finds themselves in 12th place after one match played. They have yet to secure any points this season, having lost their opening game. With two goals scored but three conceded, their defensive vulnerabilities could be a significant concern as they face a high-flying Pachuca side. According to the model, Pachuca has a win probability of approximately 65%, while Leon's chances sit around 25%. One key market to note is Pachuca's odds to win, which reflect their current form and standings. However, the caveat here is that Leon, despite their poor start, could rebound unexpectedly, especially if they leverage home advantage. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Leon have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Leon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Leon vs CF Pachuca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.88 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.84 | 3.24 | 2.39 | 1.80 | 1.96 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.94 | 3.42 | 2.49 | 1.85 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.15 | 2.45 | 1.83 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.86 | 3.24 | 2.41 | 1.80 | 1.96 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.28 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.58 | 2.15 | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.47 | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.42 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CF Pachuca leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Leon and CF Pachuca, Pachuca has won 5 times, Leon has 3 wins, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; however, Pachuca's victories include two heavy wins of 4-0. Leon's most significant win was a 4-0 victory as well, showcasing their capacity to dominate. The last time Leon defeated Pachuca was in February 2025, suggesting that Pachuca has had the upper hand in recent encounters. Overall, the record reflects a slightly favorable position for Pachuca.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WLW |
| 4 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | LLW |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLeon have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat CF Pachuca 1-0 and lost to Atlas 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 12L from the last 23 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
CF Pachuca have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to CF Pachuca 1-0 and beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 7L from the last 25 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeon
No reported absences
CF Pachuca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Leon have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; CF Pachuca 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Leon have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Leon player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
