Atletico-MG vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico-MG to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atletico-MG currently sits in 10th place in the Serie A standings, having played 20 matches with a record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference is even, with 25 goals scored and 25 conceded, indicating a balanced performance throughout the season. Recent form shows they have secured three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are finding some momentum. In contrast, Gremio is struggling in 17th place, just above the relegation zone. They have managed only 5 wins from 20 matches, with a record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference is negative, having scored 22 goals and conceded 26. Their recent form indicates a lack of consistency, with just one win in their last five matches, raising concerns about their ability to compete effectively against stronger opponents. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Atletico-MG, while Gremio's chances sit around 25%. The key market percentage reflects Atletico-MG as the favourite to win at 60%. However, a potential caveat for Atletico-MG is their tendency to occasionally falter against lower-ranked teams, which could lead to an unexpected result. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 28% of matches. Gremio average 1.3 goals per game.
Atletico-MG manage games at home, conceding just 1.08 goals per match. Gremio score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Atletico-MG have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico-MG clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Atletico-MG are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico-MG vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.50 | 4.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.81 | 3.44 | 4.40 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.33 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.87 | 3.59 | 4.54 | 2.07 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.30 | 4.18 | 2.07 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.86 | 3.54 | 4.52 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.35 | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Atletico-MG and Gremio, Gremio has won 5 times, Atletico-MG has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches decided by narrow margins, such as four games ending 2-1. While Gremio holds a slight edge in wins, the contests have often been closely contested, suggesting neither team has dominated. The most recent encounter ended with a 2-1 victory for Gremio, showcasing that both teams have been capable of winning against each other in recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 19 | 25 | 45 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 38 | WDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 36 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 32 | WDWDW |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 25 | LWDLL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico-MG have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atletico-MG 0-0 and beat Atletico-MG 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 12L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gremio 3-0 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 14D 12L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAtletico-MG4-2-3-1Confirmed
Gremio4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersAtletico-MG5
Gremio7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
B. Arleu has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atletico-MG have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico-MG have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico-MG player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
