Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo
Match Preview
The model favours Sao Paulo to win against Chapecoense-sc, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Sao Paulo currently occupies 12th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 26 points from 21 matches. Their season has been marked by a struggle for consistency, reflected in their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. Key metrics include their slightly positive goal difference of 1 and their ability to score 26 goals, which indicates a more potent attack compared to their opponents. In contrast, Chapecoense-sc sits at the bottom of the table in 20th place, with just 10 points from 21 games. Their form has been particularly concerning, recording only 1 win, 7 draws, and 13 losses this season. They have struggled defensively, conceding 43 goals, which contributes to a goal difference of -23. Recent performances have not shown signs of improvement, as they have failed to secure a win in their last five matches. The model gives Sao Paulo a significant advantage in this matchup, with a high win probability based on their overall performance this season. However, Chapecoense-sc could pose a challenge if they manage to improve their defensive organization or capitalize on set-pieces. The full prediction methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 22% of matches. Sao Paulo average 1.3 goals per game.
Chapecoense-sc manage games at home, conceding just 1.44 goals per match. Sao Paulo score 1.30 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Sao Paulo have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Sao Paulo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 3.74 | 3.18 | 2.04 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.74 | |
| 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.94 | 3.27 | 2.11 | 2.34 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.04 | 2.02 | 2.26 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.84 | 3.27 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 3.95 | 3.15 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.07 | 2.27 | 1.63 | 2.00 | 1.76 |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.20 | 2.05 | 2.18 | 1.58 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Chapecoense-SC and Sao Paulo, Chapecoense-SC has won 3 times, drawn 3 times, and Sao Paulo has secured 4 victories. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Sao Paulo achieving two heavy wins, including a 4-0 victory, while Chapecoense-SC's wins have been narrow, with a 1-0 scoreline in their favor on one occasion. The presence of three draws reflects a competitive nature in several fixtures. Sao Paulo last won against Chapecoense-SC in 2020, suggesting a shift in performance over recent years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 27 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-sc have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bahia 3-3 and drew with Cruzeiro 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 12D 18L from the last 41 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Bolívar 1-1 and lost to Gremio 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 11L from the last 37 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChapecoense-sc4-3-3Confirmed
Sao Paulo4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersChapecoense-sc8
Sao Paulo3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Klein has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Chapecoense-sc have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Sao Paulo 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sao Paulo have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sao Paulo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
