Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Vasco da Gama. As the current league leaders, Palmeiras have shown strong form this season, accumulating 48 points from 22 matches, with 14 wins and only two losses. Their goal difference of 22, having scored 38 goals while conceding just 16, highlights their defensive solidity and attacking prowess. In contrast, Vasco da Gama finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting 18th in the standings with only 22 points from 21 matches. Their record of five wins against nine losses illustrates their struggles this season. While they have managed to secure points in their recent matches, with a run of draws, their overall goal difference of -8 indicates ongoing defensive issues that could be exploited by a team of Palmeiras' quality. The model gives Palmeiras a significant win probability, reflecting their dominant position in the league. However, one caveat to consider is that if Vasco can maintain their recent form and frustrate Palmeiras, they could potentially secure an unexpected result. For a full understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of matches. Vasco DA Gama average 1.2 goals per game.
Palmeiras manage games at home, conceding just 0.76 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.18 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Palmeiras win as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Palmeiras clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 3.85 | 5.40 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.35 | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.63 | 4.02 | 5.72 | 2.00 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.62 | 5.03 | 2.00 | 1.84 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.75 | 1.92 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.60 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.55 | 1.97 | 1.85 | 1.97 | 1.77 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.50 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama, Palmeiras has won 7 times, with 2 draws and 1 victory for Vasco DA Gama. This record indicates a dominant performance by Palmeiras, particularly evident in the scorelines, as they have secured several narrow victories, including four 1-0 wins. The only victory for Vasco DA Gama came in March 2026, making it their first win in this matchup since before that, Palmeiras had won the last six encounters. The overall pattern shows a tendency for low-scoring games, highlighting Palmeiras' strong defensive record against Vasco.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPalmeiras have won 14 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Palmeiras 1-1 and drew with Palmeiras 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 9D 5L from the last 38 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Bahia 0-0 and beat Fluminense 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 15D 13L from the last 40 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPalmeiras3-4-2-1Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersPalmeiras3
Vasco DA Gama3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
B. Machado has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by B. Machado to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Palmeiras have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
