Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Vitoria, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bahia currently sits in sixth place in Serie A, boasting a solid overall record of eight wins, nine draws, and five losses. With 33 points from 22 matches, they have scored 29 goals while conceding just 25, resulting in a positive goal difference of four. Their recent form has been steady, with one win and four draws in their last five matches, indicating a resilient side that can secure points even when not at their best. On the other hand, Vitoria finds themselves in 13th position with 26 points from 21 games. Their record of seven wins, five draws, and nine losses reflects a challenging season, particularly as they have only managed one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. With 22 goals scored and 31 conceded, their goal difference of -9 suggests defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a more potent attack like Bahia's. The model gives Bahia a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, Vitoria's home advantage at Barradao and Bahia's recent tendency to draw could complicate matters. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vitoria manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Bahia score 1.56 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Vitoria have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vitoria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.84 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.58 | 3.08 | 2.78 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.68 | 3.18 | 2.88 | 2.21 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 2.53 | 3.05 | 2.58 | 2.11 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.66 | 3.17 | 2.86 | 2.18 | 1.71 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.04 | 1.76 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.82 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.80 | 2.17 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bahia leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Bahia, Bahia has won 5 times, Vitoria has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins, including four 1-1 draws and a mix of 2-1 results. Bahia has demonstrated a stronger performance historically, particularly with two 2-0 victories, suggesting a tendency for tighter matches rather than heavy defeats. Vitoria's last win against Bahia came in 2025, highlighting a challenging period for them in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 29 | WLLLD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 15 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vitoria 4-0 and lost to Vitoria 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 14L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Bahia 3-3 and drew with Fluminense 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 9L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersVitoria7
Bahia3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Claus has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Claus to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Bahia 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vitoria have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vitoria player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
