RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
RB Bragantino vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours RB Bragantino to secure a victory against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bragantino currently sits in 7th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 31 points from 20 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid goal difference of +6, with 26 goals scored and only 20 conceded. However, recent form has been a bit mixed, with just one win in their last five matches, indicating a need for improvement to maintain their position in the upper half of the table. On the other hand, Gremio is positioned 14th with 25 points from 21 matches. They have struggled defensively, conceding 27 goals, which has contributed to their negative goal difference of -3. Despite this, Gremio has shown some resilience lately, with two wins and two draws in their last five outings. This slight upturn in form may provide them with the confidence they need to challenge Bragantino. The model gives RB Bragantino a win probability of approximately 55%, while Gremio's chances stand at around 25%, with a 20% likelihood of a draw. One key market to watch is the over/under goals line, which suggests a competitive match. A potential caveat for Bragantino could be their recent inconsistency, which might allow Gremio to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of matches. Gremio average 1.3 goals per game.
RB Bragantino manage games at home, conceding just 0.97 goals per match. Gremio score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
RB Bragantino have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 RB Bragantino win as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature RB Bragantino clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. RB Bragantino are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
RB Bragantino vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.60 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 1.59 | 3.90 | 5.35 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 1.62 | 4.12 | 5.65 | 1.92 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.61 | 4.94 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.75 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.64 | 4.01 | 5.50 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.25 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 1.64 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (RB Bragantino leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between RB Bragantino and Gremio, RB Bragantino has won 5 times, Gremio has won once, and there have been 4 draws. This record suggests a strong performance by RB Bragantino, particularly in recent encounters, as they have secured 4 wins and 3 draws in the last 7 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests, with several matches finishing 1-1 or 2-2, but also some more decisive victories for RB Bragantino, including a 3-0 win in 2021. Gremio's last win against RB Bragantino dates back to November 2021, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 32 | DLDDW |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 25 | LWDLL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRB Bragantino have won 10 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to RB Bragantino 0-1 and lost to RB Bragantino 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 12D 13L from the last 40 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gremio 3-0 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 14D 12L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersRB Bragantino3
Gremio4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Fernandes de Lima has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
RB Bragantino have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
RB Bragantino have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. RB Bragantino player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
