Santos vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Santos to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Mirassol. Santos currently sits in 17th place in the league standings, having accumulated 22 points from 20 matches. Their recent form shows improvement, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Key to their performance is their goal-scoring capability, having netted 29 goals this season, which indicates an offensive potential that could exploit Mirassol's vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Mirassol is positioned slightly higher in 15th place with 23 points from 21 matches. Their recent form includes only one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. With 24 goals scored and 30 conceded, their negative goal difference reflects struggles in both attacking and defending, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model gives Santos a win probability of approximately 45%, projecting a score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Santos scoring at least two goals. However, a potential caveat is Santos' overall league position, which indicates they are still battling relegation and may struggle under pressure. For a detailed understanding of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Santos manage games at home, conceding just 1.22 goals per match. Mirassol score 1.10 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Santos have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Santos clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Santos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 1.81 | 3.50 | 4.30 | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.84 | 3.71 | 4.51 | 1.97 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.36 | 4.00 | 1.96 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.86 | 3.60 | 4.42 | 1.94 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 1.86 | 3.45 | 4.10 | 1.93 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.25 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.33 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Santos leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Santos and Mirassol, Santos has won 4 times, with 4 draws and 2 victories for Mirassol. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive victories. Notably, both teams have managed to score in most encounters, suggesting a tendency for close contests. The last time Mirassol secured a win against Santos was in February 2022, highlighting that Santos has had the upper hand in recent meetings.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 25 | WLDLW |
| 17 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 23 | LLWDW |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santos 2-1 and lost to Santos 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 14D 12L from the last 41 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mirassol have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Mirassol 0-0 and lost to Cruzeiro 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 16L from the last 39 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSantos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Mirassol4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersSantos3
Mirassol7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Batista has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santos have generated 1.84 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
