Baltika vs Zenit Prediction, Tips & Odds
Baltika vs Zenit
Match Preview
The model favours Zenit to win against Baltika, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Zenit currently sits in third place in the league, having secured 12 points from six matches, with a season record of four wins and two losses. Their goal difference is impressive at +9, reflecting a strong offensive and defensive performance, having scored 13 goals while conceding only 4. This solid form is underpinned by their ability to both create and limit chances, which is crucial as they strive to maintain their position near the top of the table. On the other hand, Baltika is positioned fifth with 10 points from their six matches, boasting a record of three wins, one draw, and two losses. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 6, resulting in a goal difference of +4. Although they have shown resilience, their recent form shows a struggle to convert draws into wins, with only one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to challenge a team like Zenit, which has been more effective in securing victories. The model gives Zenit a strong win probability for this match, supported by their overall season performance and recent form. However, a caveat is that if Baltika can capitalize on home advantage and tighten their defence, they could pose a significant challenge. The analysis is based on an in-house model from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Zenit average 1.9 goals per game.
Baltika manage games at home, conceding just 0.84 goals per match. Zenit score 1.87 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
Zenit have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Zenit win as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Zenit are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Baltika vs Zenit| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.65 | 3.78 | 1.78 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 4.77 | 3.88 | 1.83 | 2.12 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Zenit leads 7-1)Zenit hold the edge in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 meetings with 1 draws and 1 Baltika win. The record points to a tie Zenit have controlled for years, though the draws show Baltika have at times kept it tight.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 | Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBaltika have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Krylia Sovetov 0-0 and drew with Rubin 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 9L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Zenit have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fakel 0-1 and lost to Spartak Moscow 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 8D 3L from the last 38 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBaltika
No reported absences
Zenit
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Baltika have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Zenit 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Zenit have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Zenit player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
