Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Prediction, Tips & Odds
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
Match Preview
The model favours Spartak Moscow to win the match against Fakel, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Spartak is currently in second place in the league, with a strong season record of four wins, one draw, and just one loss from their six matches played. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 5, giving them a goal difference of +6. Their recent form is also impressive, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a solid level of performance. On the other hand, Fakel is struggling at the bottom of the table in 16th position. They have yet to secure a win this season, accumulating only two points from two draws and four losses. With just three goals scored and seven conceded, their goal difference stands at -4, highlighting their difficulties both in attack and defense. Their recent form shows no wins and three losses in their last five matches, which raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively. The model indicates a high probability of a Spartak win, suggesting a dominant performance is likely. However, there is always the possibility of an upset, especially if Fakel manages to improve their defensive organization or exploit any lapses in Spartak's game. The full methodology, which assesses expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches. Fakel average 1.2 goals per game.
Spartak Moscow manage games at home, conceding just 1.05 goals per match. Fakel score 1.16 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.9% probability.
Spartak Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Spartak Moscow win as the most likely scoreline at 18.9% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Spartak Moscow clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Spartak Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 4.90 | 10.50 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2.29 | 1.55 | |
| 1.38 | 5.02 | 10.70 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2.29 | 1.56 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Spartak Moscow leads 5-2)In the last eight matches between Spartak Moscow and Fakel, Spartak Moscow has won 5 times, Fakel has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for Spartak, with several convincing victories, including three matches where they scored three or more goals. Fakel's wins were more recent, suggesting they can compete, but they have struggled to maintain consistent performances, with their most recent victory over Spartak occurring in March 2024. Overall, the head-to-head record leans in favor of Spartak, though Fakel has shown they can challenge them on occasion.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 | Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSpartak Moscow have won 16 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rodina Moskva 3-1 and drew with FC Orenburg 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 10D 6L from the last 37 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fakel have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Akhmat 2-1 and lost to CSKA Moscow 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 6D 9L from the last 19 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSpartak Moscow
No reported absences
Fakel
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Spartak Moscow have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Fakel 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Spartak Moscow have generated 1.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Spartak Moscow player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
