Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Tips & Odds
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Match Preview
The model favours 1899 Hoffenheim to win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hoffenheim currently sits in 14th place in the Bundesliga, having secured 3 points from their first four matches. Their season has been marked by a single victory, though they have struggled with three losses. Notably, Hoffenheim's goal difference of -3 indicates some defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 7 goals, showing they can find the net. In contrast, Borussia Mönchengladbach is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having lost all four of their matches this season. They have yet to earn a point and have conceded 16 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -10. The team's form has been poor, with only one win in their last five matches, and they have not managed to secure a draw. This lack of consistency and defensive frailty presents a significant challenge as they face Hoffenheim. The model output suggests a win probability of 60% for Hoffenheim, reflecting their slightly better form and league position. However, a caveat to consider is that Borussia Mönchengladbach could potentially turn their season around at home, which may complicate Hoffenheim's plans. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Borussia Mönchengladbach are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.12 | 4.10 | 2.09 | 1.35 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 2.93 | |
| 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.05 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 3.10 | |
| 3.14 | 4.14 | 2.11 | 1.41 | 2.97 | — | — | |
| 2.78 | 3.53 | 2.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 3.20 | 4.21 | 2.15 | 1.35 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 2.98 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.95 | 2.12 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.38 | 2.90 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.38 | 2.73 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Borussia Mönchengladbach leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim, Borussia Mönchengladbach has won 5 times, Hoffenheim has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of high-scoring encounters, including a notable 5-1 victory for Hoffenheim and several matches with 4 or more goals. While Mönchengladbach has had the edge overall, the results show competitive matches, with both teams capable of scoring heavily. The most recent win for Hoffenheim was in early 2024, suggesting they have been less successful in recent fixtures against Mönchengladbach.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBorussia Mönchengladbach have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 and lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 10L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
1899 Hoffenheim have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to SC Paderborn 07 3-1 and lost to OFI 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 12L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBorussia Mönchengladbach
No reported absences
1899 Hoffenheim
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Soren Storks has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; 1899 Hoffenheim 10.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 9.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Mönchengladbach have generated 1.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Mönchengladbach player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
