Botafogo vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Botafogo vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Botafogo to win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 12th in the Serie A standings, Botafogo has recorded six wins, four draws, and seven losses this season, with a goal difference of zero. Their recent form has shown improvement, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a resurgence that could play a crucial role in this fixture. On the other hand, Santos sits just behind in 15th place, having played one more match than Botafogo. They have five wins, six draws, and seven losses, with a slightly negative goal difference of three. Despite their recent form showing three wins in their last five, which includes a strong performance, they still struggle to convert draws into wins, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model provides a win probability of 48.1% for Botafogo, with a 27.2% chance of a draw and a 24.7% chance for Santos. There is also a 51.4% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One potential caveat for Botafogo is the pressure of maintaining their recent form against a Santos side that is capable of capitalising on defensive errors. The full methodology used in this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model incorporating expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Botafogo have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Botafogo clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Botafogo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Botafogo vs Santos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.13 | 3.34 | 3.30 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.48 | 3.42 | 1.94 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 1.99 | 3.16 | 3.23 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.19 | 3.44 | 3.40 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.07 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 2.17 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Santos leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Botafogo and Santos, both teams have recorded 4 wins each, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and a few decisive victories, such as Botafogo’s 3-0 win in November 2022 and Santos’ 4-1 win in November 2019. The matches have often been closely contested, with four matches ending in draws, highlighting a balanced rivalry. Santos last won in July 2023, while Botafogo's most recent victory came in June 2025, suggesting competitive parity in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | WWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 33 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 5 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Botafogo | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 26 | DWLDW |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 21 | LWLLW |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 19 | WLWLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 | LWLWD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 39 | -22 | 9 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBotafogo have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santos 2-1 and beat Corinthians 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 10L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos have won 2 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gremio 3-2 and beat Coritiba 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 12D 10L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
14 playersBotafogo8
Santos6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Botafogo have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Santos 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Botafogo have generated 2.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Botafogo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
