CF Pachuca vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
CF Pachuca vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours CF Pachuca to win against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 13th in the Liga MX standings, Pachuca has had a challenging start to the season with one win and two losses from their first three matches. However, they have shown some attacking promise, scoring four goals while only conceding three, which gives them a positive goal difference of one. Their recent form, although mixed with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, indicates potential for improvement. Puebla, sitting in 11th place, has recorded one win, one draw, and one loss in the same number of games. Their goal tally stands at three, with an equal number of goals conceded, resulting in a neutral goal difference. Puebla's form has also been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. This lack of consistency could be a factor as they face a Pachuca side that is looking to capitalize on their home advantage. The model gives Pachuca a 67.4% chance of winning this match, with a 20.9% chance of a draw and an 11.7% chance for Puebla to secure the victory. Additionally, there is a 54.8% likelihood of seeing over 2.5 goals scored in the match. One caveat to consider is Pachuca's vulnerability to defensive lapses, which could allow Puebla to capitalize on any mistakes. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
CF Pachuca have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 CF Pachuca win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature CF Pachuca clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. CF Pachuca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CF Pachuca vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.40 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 3.92 | 5.85 | 1.66 | 2.16 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.58 | 4.11 | 6.19 | 1.70 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.46 | 4.07 | 5.61 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 3.80 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 1.55 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.55 | 3.92 | 5.76 | 1.66 | 2.16 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.80 | 1.67 | 2.14 | 1.74 | 1.91 | |
| 1.50 | 3.80 | 4.80 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.40 | 5.80 | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CF Pachuca leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between CF Pachuca and Puebla, CF Pachuca has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw and Puebla failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Pachuca often winning by narrow margins, such as 2-1 or 3-1, but also achieving heavy victories like 5-1 and 4-1. Puebla's inability to win in this stretch reflects a challenging trend, as they have not triumphed over Pachuca in their last 10 encounters. The matches have featured a mix of close contests and more decisive outcomes, highlighting Pachuca's dominance in this rivalry.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | WDWW |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 4 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 |  Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 12 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | DLW |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | LLW |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCF Pachuca have won 9 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to CF Pachuca 1-2 and beat CF Pachuca 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 9L from the last 27 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Puebla have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Puebla 3-2 and lost to Austin 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 15L from the last 25 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCF Pachuca
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Barba has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Barba to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
CF Pachuca have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CF Pachuca have generated 1.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CF Pachuca player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
