Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Club Queretaro vs Toluca
Match Preview
The model favours Toluca to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Club Queretaro. Toluca currently sits in 3rd place in the standings, having accumulated 6 points from their first three matches. With a goal difference of +3, they have scored 6 goals while only conceding 3. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they look to solidify their position near the top of the table. On the other hand, Club Queretaro is positioned 7th with the same points total of 6 but a lesser goal difference of +1. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 4 so far this season. Their form has been mixed, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, they will need to improve their defensive record to challenge Toluca effectively. The model output suggests that Toluca has a higher win probability in this matchup, reflecting their stronger goal difference and overall performance thus far. However, an honest caveat is that if Queretaro can leverage their home advantage effectively, they could pose a significant threat. For a detailed understanding of how these predictions are calculated, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Toluca have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Toluca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Club Queretaro vs Toluca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.50 | 3.65 | 1.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.45 | 3.65 | 1.94 | 1.58 | 2.31 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 3.30 | 3.80 | 1.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.46 | 3.65 | 1.96 | 1.58 | 2.31 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.93 | 1.58 | 2.30 | 1.48 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toluca leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Club Queretaro and Toluca, Toluca has won 5 times, Club Queretaro has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Toluca to achieve heavier victories, as evidenced by two matches ending in 4-0 and 5-0 in their favor. The games have also shown a mix of tight contests and more one-sided outcomes, with several matches ending in narrow margins. Notably, Club Queretaro has not won against Toluca since April 2026, highlighting a challenging historical record against this opponent.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 2 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 3 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWLW |
| 5 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonClub Queretaro have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Club Queretaro 3-2 and lost to Club Queretaro 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 8L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toluca have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 and drew with Atlante FC 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 10L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersClub Queretaro
No reported absences
Toluca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Club Queretaro have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Toluca 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toluca have generated 1.66 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 7.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toluca player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
