Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana
Match Preview
The model favours Club Tijuana to win against Guadalajara Chivas, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Tijuana currently sits in a strong second position in the league, having accrued 7 points from their first three matches. Their form has been solid, with two wins and one draw, and they have scored four goals while conceding only one, resulting in a goal difference of +3. This defensive strength will be crucial as they face a Chivas side that has struggled to find the back of the net consistently. Guadalajara Chivas, on the other hand, finds themselves in 12th place with just 4 points from 3 matches. Their record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss reflects a team still searching for form, as they have only managed to score two goals while conceding three. Their recent performance, marked by one win, three draws, and one loss, indicates an inability to convert draws into wins, which could be a concern as they face a stronger opponent. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Tijuana, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to watch is the odds on Tijuana to win. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is that if Chivas can improve their attacking efficiency, they could pose a significant threat. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on expected goals and actual results analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 43% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.30 | 5.70 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.49 | 4.25 | 5.80 | 1.62 | 2.23 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.84 | 1.62 | 2.23 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.45 | 4.35 | 6.00 | 1.52 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.08 | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.50 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana, Guadalajara Chivas has won 5 times, drawn 4, and Club Tijuana has won once. The scorelines indicate a relatively close rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, including four draws. However, Guadalajara Chivas has been more successful overall, with a notable ability to secure narrow victories, as seen in their 2-1 wins on multiple occasions. Club Tijuana's last win against Guadalajara Chivas came over two years ago, highlighting a trend of Chivas' dominance in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | WDWW |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 4 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 |  Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | WDWL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 and beat Guadalajara Chivas 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 7L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Club Tijuana have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Club Tijuana 3-1 and lost to San Diego 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 10D 7L from the last 24 games (29% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Club Tijuana
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 8.8 corners per match at home; Club Tijuana 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
