Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Chapecoense-sc, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Bahia currently sits in 5th place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a solid season with 8 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +4, alongside a total of 32 points from 21 matches, indicates a competitive edge. Despite a recent form of just one win in their last five matches, Bahia remains a difficult opponent, having scored 29 goals while conceding 25 this season. In contrast, Chapecoense-sc is struggling at the bottom of the table, occupying the 20th position with only 10 points from 20 matches. Their record of 1 win, 7 draws, and 12 losses, coupled with a goal difference of -22, demonstrates significant defensive vulnerabilities. Despite a slight improvement with one win in their last five matches, their overall form remains concerning, raising doubts about their ability to compete effectively in this matchup. The model gives Bahia a strong win probability, reflecting their superior standings and form compared to Chapecoense-sc. However, one caveat is that if Chapecoense-sc can leverage their home advantage and tighten their defense, they may pose a greater challenge than expected. The full prediction methodology is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.08 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.58 | 3.42 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.74 | 3.54 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 3.12 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.68 | 3.52 | 2.06 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 3.55 | 3.30 | 2.04 | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 3.80 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.84 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Bahia stands at 3 wins for each side, with 4 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with both teams achieving narrow victories, as seen in several 1-0 and 1-1 matches. However, there have also been a couple of more decisive wins, such as Chapecoense-sc's 3-1 victory in 2022 and Bahia's 3-0 win in 2021. Overall, the results reflect a balanced rivalry, with neither team having a clear edge in recent history.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 19 | 25 | 45 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 38 | WDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 36 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-sc have won 7 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bahia 3-3 and drew with Cruzeiro 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 12D 19L from the last 42 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bahia have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Bahia 3-3 and drew with Fluminense 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChapecoense-sc4-2-3-1Confirmed
Bahia4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
13 playersChapecoense-sc8
Bahia5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. C. Muniz dos Santos has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. C. Muniz dos Santos to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Chapecoense-sc have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Bahia 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
