Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
Match Preview
The model favours Charleroi to win against Union St. Gilloise, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Charleroi currently sits at the top of the Jupiler Pro League standings, having won all three of their matches this season. With six goals scored and only one conceded, they boast a goal difference of five, highlighting their strong offensive and defensive capabilities. Their recent form also supports this, with four wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Union St. Gilloise is positioned seventh in the league after playing two matches, securing one win and one draw for a total of four points. They have scored five goals while conceding just one, which demonstrates their potential. However, their form has been less consistent, with only one win in their last five matches, including three draws and one loss. The model output indicates a win probability of 60% for Charleroi, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Charleroi's chances of winning are significantly higher based on their current form and league position. However, a potential caveat is that if Union St. Gilloise can maintain their defensive solidity and exploit any lapses in Charleroi's play, they could secure a more favourable outcome. For a detailed explanation of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 3.50 | 3.52 | 1.99 | 1.81 | 1.97 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.67 | 3.71 | 2.03 | 1.86 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.87 | 2.93 | 2.16 | 1.94 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.68 | 3.66 | 1.99 | 1.82 | 2.00 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.15 | 1.86 | 1.89 | 1.66 | 2.07 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.18 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.76 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 8-0)In the last 10 matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise, Union St. Gilloise has won 8 times, with Charleroi drawing 2 and failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Union St. Gilloise, with several matches ending in convincing wins, including a notable 4-1 victory. The draws were low-scoring affairs, suggesting that Charleroi has struggled to find the back of the net against their opponents. Charleroi has not won any of the last 10 encounters, highlighting a significant challenge for them in this matchup.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club Brugge KV | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Zulte Waregem | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | WWWDD |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharleroi have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat KV Mechelen 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Union St. Gilloise have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat St. Truiden 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 9D 4L from the last 36 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharleroi4-2-3-1Confirmed
Union St. Gilloise3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCharleroi
No reported absences
Union St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
N. Laforge has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by N. Laforge to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charleroi have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; Union St. Gilloise 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
