St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against St. Truiden. Union St. Gilloise currently sits in 5th place in the Jupiler Pro League, having played two matches this season. Their form shows one win and one draw, with an impressive goal difference of +4, having scored 5 goals while conceding only 1. This strong defensive record, coupled with their attacking capabilities, makes them a formidable opponent. In contrast, St. Truiden finds themselves in 12th position, having drawn both of their opening matches, resulting in a goal difference of 0. Their recent form has been less than ideal, with no wins in their last five outings (3 draws and 2 losses). While they have managed to score 4 goals, their inability to secure victories may weigh heavily on their confidence as they face a stronger side in Union St. Gilloise. According to the model's output, Union St. Gilloise has a win probability of approximately 60%, with St. Truiden at 20% and the draw at 20%. However, one caveat is that if St. Truiden can tighten their defense and convert their chances, they could cause an upset. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 3.54 | 3.54 | 1.97 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.71 | 3.67 | 2.03 | 1.70 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.38 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.68 | 3.64 | 2.00 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.97 | 1.66 | 2.18 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 3.55 | 3.65 | 2.02 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise, Union St. Gilloise has won 7 times, with St. Truiden securing just 1 victory and 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Union St. Gilloise, as they have achieved several convincing wins, including a 4-0 victory and multiple matches with a two-goal margin. The lone win for St. Truiden came in a close 2-1 match, while the most recent draw was a low-scoring 0-0 affair. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a clear dominance by Union St. Gilloise in recent encounters.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club Brugge KV | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Zulte Waregem | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | WWWDD |
| 8 | St. Truiden | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 | WLWDD |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Truiden have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat RAAL La Louvière 4-0 and lost to Union St. Gilloise 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 4D 12L from the last 36 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Union St. Gilloise have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat St. Truiden 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 9D 4L from the last 36 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSt. TruidenConfirmed
Union St. GilloiseConfirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSt. Truiden
No reported absences
Union St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
N. Verboomen has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
St. Truiden have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Union St. Gilloise 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
