CSKA Moscow vs Baltika Prediction, Tips & Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Baltika
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Moscow to win against Baltika, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. CSKA Moscow has shown resilience in their season form, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This indicates a solid ability to compete, particularly in leveraging their home advantage at VEB Arena. On the other hand, Baltika has had a mixed season lately. Their last five matches yielded three wins but also two losses, suggesting inconsistency in their performances. While they started strongly, the recent defeats could impact their confidence going into this match. According to the model output, CSKA Moscow has a higher win probability, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Baltika can regain their early-season form and exploit any defensive weaknesses from CSKA, they could pose a significant challenge. The full method for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
CSKA Moscow manage games at home, conceding just 1.56 goals per match. Baltika score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
CSKA Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature CSKA Moscow clean sheets, in line with their 4% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. CSKA Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Baltika| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.01 | 3.52 | 3.96 | 2.20 | 1.71 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 2.05 | 3.22 | 3.96 | 2.18 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.58 | 4.03 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (CSKA Moscow leads 5-2)In the last eight matches between CSKA Moscow and Baltika, CSKA Moscow has won five times, Baltika has won twice, and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive matchup, with several narrow victories; four of CSKA Moscow's wins were by a single goal, while Baltika's two victories also featured closely contested scores. Notably, Baltika's last win against CSKA Moscow was in April 2024, suggesting a recent struggle for them in this fixture. Overall, while CSKA Moscow has the upper hand, the matches have often been tight and hard-fought.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCSKA Moscow have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Arsenal Tula 1-1 and drew with Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 8L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Baltika have won 4 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Baltika 0-5 and beat Akron 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 6L from the last 22 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCSKA Moscow
No reported absences
Baltika
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
CSKA Moscow have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Baltika 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CSKA Moscow have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 36% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CSKA Moscow player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
