DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
DC United vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours DC United to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. DC United currently sits in 9th place in the league standings, having played 15 matches this season. With 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, they have scored 21 goals while conceding 25, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Their recent form shows a slight improvement, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating they are gradually finding their footing. On the other hand, Toronto FC is struggling in 13th place with only 3 wins from 14 matches. They have managed to score 22 goals but have also conceded 29, leaving them with a goal difference of -7. Their form has been concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, including four consecutive losses. This lack of form could be a significant factor as they approach this match. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for DC United, while Toronto FC has a 20% chance of winning. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of both teams scoring at 60%. However, a caveat to consider is that DC United needs to convert their chances more effectively, as their goal-scoring has been inconsistent. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
DC United have been the stronger side, winning 18% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. DC United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
DC United vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 2.08 | 3.54 | 3.24 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.19 | 3.68 | 3.28 | 1.82 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.28 | 3.12 | 1.83 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.15 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (DC United leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between DC United and Toronto FC stands at 4 wins for DC United, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Toronto FC over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some significant victories, with DC United's 7-1 win in July 2021 being the standout result. Matches have frequently ended in draws, with three of the last ten fixtures finishing level. Both teams have shown an ability to score, but the presence of multiple high-scoring games suggests that their encounters are often competitive, with no team dominating consistently.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 33 | DLWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 33 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 33 | DLWLL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 29 | WDLWL |
| 9 | DC United | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 22 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 14 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDC United have won 2 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with CF Montreal 4-4 and drew with St. Louis City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 10D 8L from the last 22 games (18% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 0-0 and lost to Chicago Fire 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 9L from the last 23 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDC United4-4-2Confirmed
Toronto FC3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersDC United4
Toronto FC6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Serhiy Boiko has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Serhiy Boiko to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
DC United have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
DC United have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 18% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. DC United player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
