Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model slightly favours Feyenoord to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned second in the Eredivisie, Feyenoord has had an impressive start to the season, remaining unbeaten with five wins and two draws from their first seven matches. They have scored 25 goals while conceding only 7, resulting in a strong goal difference of +18, showcasing their offensive strength and solid defensive capabilities. AZ Alkmaar sits at the top of the table with 19 points from seven matches, having won six and drawn one. Their goal tally stands at 18, with just 6 goals conceded, leading to a goal difference of +12. While they have maintained an unbeaten record, their recent form shows some vulnerability, with a mix of results in their last five matches, including a loss and a draw. The model outputs a win probability of 50.9% for Feyenoord, alongside a 23.3% chance of a draw and a 25.8% chance for an AZ Alkmaar victory. One potential caveat for Feyenoord is the pressure of playing against the league leaders, which may impact their performance. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on these metrics to provide informed insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
Feyenoord have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Feyenoord win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Feyenoord are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.68 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.76 | 4.10 | 4.48 | 1.44 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.69 | 3.96 | 3.82 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.75 | 4.12 | 4.38 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.73 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.40 | 4.70 | 1.42 | 2.92 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Feyenoord leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar, Feyenoord has won 8 times, with 1 draw and 1 victory for AZ Alkmaar. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Feyenoord, with several narrow wins, including four matches decided by a single goal. The most recent encounter ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw, suggesting AZ Alkmaar can compete, but their last win came in February 2022, highlighting a significant advantage for Feyenoord in recent fixtures. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a lopsided trend favoring Feyenoord.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFeyenoord have won 13 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Feyenoord 3-2 and beat Feyenoord 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 7D 5L from the last 34 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with AZ Alkmaar 2-2 and lost to Feyenoord 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 10D 9L from the last 41 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersFeyenoord8
AZ Alkmaar3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Danny Makkelie has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Feyenoord have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 7.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Feyenoord have generated 2.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 7.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Feyenoord player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
