Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win this match against Flora Tallinn, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kalju Nomme currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga, having accumulated 44 points from 24 matches, with 13 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +24, backed by 43 goals scored and only 19 conceded, highlights a strong defensive record that could prove crucial in this fixture. Furthermore, Kalju's recent form is impressive, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a solid run of performance. In contrast, Flora Tallinn is positioned third with 39 points from 21 matches, recording 13 wins but suffering 8 losses. Their goal difference of +18, with 42 goals for and 24 against, suggests they are less defensively resilient compared to their opponents. Flora's recent form has been a concern, with just one win in their last five matches, which could affect their confidence going into this important match. Based on the analysis, the model gives Kalju Nomme a win probability of approximately 55%, while Flora Tallinn has a 25% chance of winning. A key market to consider would be the odds on Kalju Nomme winning by a single goal. However, Flora could surprise if they find their scoring touch, as they have the ability to create chances. For a comprehensive understanding of how these predictions were reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.51 | 3.50 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 2.24 | 1.47 | 2.42 | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.51 | 3.50 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 2.24 | 1.47 | 2.47 | |
| 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 3.40 | 2.37 | 1.53 | 2.18 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)In the last 10 matches between Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme, both teams have recorded 4 wins each, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several close contests; notably, there have been four matches decided by a single goal. The highest-scoring match ended 3-2 in favor of Flora Tallinn, while Kalju Nomme's most significant win was a 3-1 victory. The most recent draw was a 0-0 stalemate, indicating that while both teams are evenly matched historically, they can also engage in low-scoring affairs.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 24 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 64 | 20 | 44 | 59 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Kalju Nomme | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 44 | LLWWW |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 42 | LLWLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 42 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 31 | WWLLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 25 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 25 | LLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 | DLWWL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 57 | -39 | 17 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 2-3 and lost to Flora Tallinn 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 2D 15L from the last 39 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 11 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-0 and lost to Laagri 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 10L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 1.9 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 56% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.