Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Paide, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits atop the Meistriliiga standings, boasting an impressive record of 17 wins, 5 draws, and just 1 loss from 23 matches. Their goal difference of +43 highlights their offensive strength, having scored 61 goals while conceding only 18. This season, they have consistently demonstrated their ability to dominate matches, making them formidable opponents. On the other hand, Paide is positioned fourth in the league, with a record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses. They have scored 38 goals and conceded 30, resulting in a goal difference of +8. While Paide has shown resilience, their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates some inconsistency. They will need to elevate their performance to challenge the league leaders effectively. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for FC Levadia Tallinn, with a key market percentage indicating a strong backing for their victory. However, a potential caveat for FC Levadia is their recent draw, which might signal a slight dip in form. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.95 | 4.15 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 2.25 | |
| 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 5.11 | 4.15 | 1.51 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 2.29 | |
| 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.54 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 4.30 | 3.85 | 1.62 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn, FC Levadia Tallinn has won 6 times, Paide has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, though Levadia has had the upper hand. Notably, matches have featured a mix of close encounters and a few more decisive results, such as Levadia's 3-0 victory and 4-2 win. The draw in their most recent meeting suggests that Paide can hold their own, but it has been some time since they last secured a win against Levadia in league play.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 24 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 64 | 20 | 44 | 59 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 44 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 42 | LLWLW |
| 4 | Paide | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 42 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 31 | WWLLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 25 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 25 | LLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 | DLWWL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 57 | -39 | 17 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 14 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Paide 4-1 and lost to Paide 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 12L from the last 41 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Levadia Tallinn have won 14 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Laagri 1-2 and beat IFK Goteborg 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 6D 5L from the last 36 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
FC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.7 goals per match at home; FC Levadia Tallinn 2.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.7 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
