Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Nõmme United. Vaprus currently sits in 7th place in the Meistriliiga, having accumulated 27 points from 22 matches, with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses. They have scored 30 goals while conceding 42, resulting in a goal difference of -12. Despite their inconsistent form, Vaprus has managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential upswing. On the other hand, Nõmme United is positioned just below in 8th place with 25 points from 23 matches, boasting a similar win tally of 8 but with only one draw and 14 losses. They have been less effective defensively, conceding 54 goals, which contributes to a goal difference of -14. Their recent form has not been promising, with just two wins in their last five matches and a concerning three consecutive losses. The model assigns Vaprus a win probability of around 55%, supporting the predicted scoreline of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Vaprus winning at home. However, a potential factor that could disrupt this prediction is Vaprus's tendency to concede goals, which may allow Nõmme United to capitalize if they can find their attacking rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Vaprus have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Vaprus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.51 | 3.65 | 2.28 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.33 | 2.91 | |
| 2.45 | 3.90 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.51 | 3.65 | 2.28 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.33 | 2.98 | |
| 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.12 | 1.34 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.88 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.35 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Vaprus and Nõmme United, Vaprus has won 7 times, while Nõmme United has claimed victory 3 times, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, including some heavy wins for Vaprus, such as a 7-0 victory in a friendly and a 4-1 win in the Esiliiga A. However, Nõmme United has also shown competitive performances, notably a 7-1 win against Vaprus. Overall, Vaprus has a strong head-to-head advantage, but the presence of high-scoring matches suggests that Nõmme United can pose a significant challenge.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 24 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 64 | 20 | 44 | 59 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 44 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 24 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 42 | LLWLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 42 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 31 | WWLLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 28 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 25 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 25 | LLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 | DLWWL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 57 | -39 | 17 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vaprus 1-2 and beat Vaprus 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 18L from the last 35 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paide 4-1 and beat Hiiumaa 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 2D 18L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.8 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vaprus have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 37% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Vaprus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.