Kuressaare vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Kuressaare to win this match against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kuressaare currently sits in 9th place in the Meistriliiga standings with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 14 losses. Their season has shown some promise, particularly in recent matches where they have secured three wins in their last five games. With a goal difference of -14, they have scored 25 goals while conceding 39, indicating a need for improvement in defence, but their recent form suggests they are gaining momentum. Trans Narva is positioned at the bottom of the league table in 10th place, having managed only 5 wins, 2 draws, and 17 losses this season. They have struggled significantly, reflected in their goal difference of -37, with just 18 goals scored and 55 conceded. Despite a slight uptick in form with two wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively against teams in better form. According to the model, Kuressaare has a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that if Trans Narva can exploit Kuressaare's defensive vulnerabilities, they may pull off an upset. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Kuressaare have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kuressaare are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.83 | 3.22 | 2.24 | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.66 | 2.04 | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.91 | 3.36 | 2.29 | 1.88 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.91 | 3.22 | 2.25 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.77 | 2.05 | |
| 2.43 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 3.25 | 2.47 | 1.80 | 1.85 | — | — |
Superbet | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 1.82 | 1.88 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 2.90 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kuressaare leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Kuressaare and Trans Narva shows Kuressaare winning 4 matches, drawing 4, and Trans Narva winning 2 times over the last 10 fixtures. The scorelines reveal a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and low-scoring games, such as the 0-0 draws and a 1-1 friendly. Kuressaare has had a slight edge, particularly in recent encounters, with their last defeat to Trans Narva coming over a year ago. Overall, the results indicate a balanced contest, although Kuressaare has been more successful recently.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Vaprus 2-2 and beat Welco X 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 18L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 3-1 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 23L from the last 40 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Kaivoja has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Kaivoja to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.5 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kuressaare have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 31% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Kuressaare player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.