Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga, having accumulated 39 points from 20 matches. Their record of 13 wins, no draws, and 7 losses highlights their attacking prowess, with a goal difference of +19. Despite a mixed form recently, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, they remain a formidable team, particularly at home. On the other hand, Kuressaare is struggling in ninth place with just 18 points from 21 games. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses. The team has conceded 34 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -15. Their recent form has also been poor, with only one win in their last five matches, suggesting they will face significant challenges against a strong opponent like Flora Tallinn. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Flora Tallinn, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their home advantage and overall stronger season performance. However, a caveat is that if Kuressaare can find their rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses, they could make the match competitive. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flora Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.20 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 1.30 | 4.80 | 7.50 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.67 | 2.02 | |
| 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.36 | 5.10 | 6.91 | 1.45 | 2.63 | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.60 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.60 | 7.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.25 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.31 | 4.80 | 7.80 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.28 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 1.36 | 2.80 | 1.61 | 2.08 | |
| 1.30 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.36 | 4.65 | 6.40 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 9-0)In their last 10 encounters, Flora Tallinn has won 9 times, and there has been 1 draw, while Kuressaare has not secured a single victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Flora often winning by a comfortable margin; notable results include a 5-0 win and several matches by two or more goals. The lone draw occurred in April 2024, suggesting that while Kuressaare has managed to earn a point, they have struggled to compete effectively. Overall, the historical data highlights a dominant trend in favor of Flora Tallinn.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 57 | 18 | 39 | 53 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 21 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 39 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Paide | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 36 | DWLWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 29 | WLLWW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 8 |  Laagri | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 25 | LLLWW |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 | WWLDL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 23 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 51 | -33 | 17 | DLWWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 12 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kuressaare 2-3 and lost to Inter Club d'Escaldes 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 2D 14L from the last 38 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kuressaare 0-8 and lost to Paide 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 17L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Reinumagi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by E. Reinumagi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 1.8 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 58% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.