Flora Tallinn vs Laagri Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Laagri
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Laagri, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned second in the Meistriliiga standings, Flora has accumulated 36 points from 19 matches, demonstrating a strong season overall with 12 wins. Their goal difference of +18 highlights their offensive capabilities, although their recent form shows some inconsistency with two wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Laagri sits in eighth place with 25 points from 20 matches, reflecting a challenging season. With eight wins to their name but a negative goal difference of -4, they have struggled defensively, conceding 34 goals. Recent form has been particularly troubling, as they have lost three of their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model's output indicates a win probability favouring Flora Tallinn, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Flora winning outright. However, a potential caveat is Flora's recent inconsistency, which could allow Laagri to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology, which leverages expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flora Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Laagri| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 4.55 | 6.35 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.55 | 2.23 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.37 | 4.55 | 6.59 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.50 | 5.60 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 9-1)In the last 10 matches between Flora Tallinn and Laagri, Flora Tallinn has won 9 times, while Laagri has secured just 1 victory, with no draws. This record indicates a significant advantage for Flora Tallinn, highlighted by their ability to achieve heavy wins, including a 5-0 and a 4-0 result. Laagri's sole win came in March 2026, suggesting a long stretch of dominance by Flora Tallinn in this matchup. Overall, the scorelines reflect a pattern of one-sided contests, with Flora Tallinn frequently scoring multiple goals while limiting Laagri's offensive output.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 36 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 4 |  Paide | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 32 | LWDWW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 26 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 26 | LWWWD |
| 8 | Laagri | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 | DLLLD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 20 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 13 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat The New Saints 1-0 and lost to Nõmme United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 2D 10L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Laagri have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 2-1 and lost to Paide 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 12L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Laagri
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 2.0 goals per match at home; Laagri 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 64% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.