Paide vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Kuressaare. Currently sitting in 4th place, Paide has shown competitive form this season, accumulating 32 points from 20 matches with 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +4 demonstrates a balanced attack and defence, scoring 32 goals while conceding 28. In their last five matches, Paide has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss, indicating they are capable of securing results. On the other hand, Kuressaare finds itself in 9th place with 18 points from the same number of matches, struggling with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses. Their goal difference of -14 highlights significant defensive issues, having conceded 33 goals while only scoring 19. In recent form, they have not won in their last five matches, with three losses and just two draws, which suggests ongoing challenges in their performance. The model gives Paide a win probability of approximately 58%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Kuressaare can tighten their defence or exploit any lapses in Paide's form, they might pull off an upset. The full methodology, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, courtesy of The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Paide clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.10 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| 1.52 | 3.90 | 5.10 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.61 | 2.12 | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.60 | 4.03 | 4.86 | 1.59 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.71 | 4.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.54 | 3.90 | 5.16 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.61 | 2.16 | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.10 | 1.56 | 2.18 | 1.63 | 2.06 | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.47 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Paide and Kuressaare, Paide has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in draws, while Kuressaare has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Paide, highlighted by a notable 5-1 win and several other matches with a margin of at least two goals. The frequent draws suggest that Kuressaare has managed to hold Paide on a few occasions, but they have not won any of the recent encounters, making this a one-sided historical record overall.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 50 | WDWLD |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 41 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Paide | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 | WLDLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 50 | -33 | 16 | LWWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 14 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Rapid Vienna 1-4 and beat Kuressaare 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 10L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paide 1-0 and lost to Nõmme United 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 17L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.7 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 49% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.