Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, having amassed 46 points from 19 matches, with an impressive record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss. Their goal difference of +33 is a testament to their strong offensive capabilities, scoring 49 goals while conceding only 16. This dominant form places them as clear favourites in this matchup. On the other hand, Vaprus occupies the 5th position with 26 points from 20 matches, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches. Vaprus has struggled defensively, reflected in their goal difference of -10, which highlights their challenges in both scoring and preventing goals. The model gives FC Levadia Tallinn a strong win probability in this fixture, reflecting their superior season performance. However, Vaprus could pose a threat if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Levadia. For a complete understanding of the prediction, including the methodology based on expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has developed this in-house model to provide accurate insights into the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 11.25 | 5.70 | 1.18 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.78 | 1.88 | |
| 11.00 | 6.00 | 1.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 11.70 | 5.70 | 1.19 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.78 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 8.50 | 5.60 | 1.23 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Vaprus and FC Levadia Tallinn, the record stands at 1 win for Vaprus, 2 draws, and 7 wins for FC Levadia Tallinn. This indicates a notably one-sided historical matchup, with Levadia Tallinn consistently dominating the encounters. The scorelines reflect this dominance, with several heavy defeats for Vaprus, including a 1-4 loss and a 0-2 loss. The matches have also shown a tendency for close contests, as seen in the two draws, but overall, Vaprus has not won against FC Levadia Tallinn in their last six meetings, highlighting a significant challenge for them in this rivalry.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 36 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 4 |  Paide | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 32 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Vaprus | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 26 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 26 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  Laagri | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 | DLLLD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 20 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 13 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vaprus 5-1 and beat Vaprus 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 16L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Levadia Tallinn have won 12 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Caernarfon Town 0-5 and beat Trans Narva 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 6D 4L from the last 30 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
FC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.6 goals per match at home; FC Levadia Tallinn 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.