Nõmme United vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Nõmme United to win against Trans Narva, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Nõmme United currently sits in 7th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 25 points from 20 matches. Their season has been mixed, with a record of 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses. Notably, they have scored 39 goals while conceding 46, resulting in a goal difference of -7. Their recent form shows promise, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are finding some consistency. On the other hand, Trans Narva is struggling at 10th place, with just 10 points from 19 matches and a dismal record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 15 losses. They have only managed to score 12 goals this season while conceding 46, leading to a goal difference of -34. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, as they have not secured a win in their last five matches, suffering four losses and just one draw. This lack of scoring power and defensive frailty makes them a challenging opponent. The model provides a win probability of Nõmme United at approximately 65%, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat could be Nõmme United's inconsistent defensive record, which might allow Trans Narva to capitalize on any lapses. For a detailed explanation of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Nõmme United have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nõmme United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.91 | 3.85 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 2.65 | |
| 1.91 | 3.64 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.67 | |
| 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.04 | 3.80 | 3.09 | 1.44 | 2.67 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.38 | 2.83 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.93 | 3.64 | 3.26 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.73 | |
| 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 1.42 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.20 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 1.43 | 2.52 | 1.43 | 2.65 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Nõmme United and Trans Narva shows that Trans Narva has won 4 matches while Nõmme United has won 3, with no draws in their last 7 encounters. This indicates a competitive rivalry, though Trans Narva has the edge. The scorelines reveal some tight matches, such as the 3-4 and 1-2 results, but also include heavier defeats for Nõmme United, notably a 0-4 loss. The trailing side, Nõmme United, has not won against Trans Narva in their last four meetings, suggesting a recent dominance by Trans Narva.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 57 | 18 | 39 | 53 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 21 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 39 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Paide | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 36 | DWLWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 29 | WLLWW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 7 | Nõmme United | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 25 | LLLWW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 25 | LLLWW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 | WWLDL |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 23 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 51 | -33 | 17 | DLWWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tammeka 0-1 and lost to Trans Narva 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 2D 17L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Nõmme United 1-2 and lost to Laagri 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 20L from the last 36 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Kulljastinen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Kulljastinen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.4 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Nõmme United have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 41% of their matches and averaging 2.4 goals per game. Nõmme United player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.