Flora Tallinn vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Paide, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flora Tallinn currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, having played 13 matches with an impressive record of 9 wins and only 4 losses. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident with 29 goals scored, while their defence has been solid, conceding just 12 goals. This results in a goal difference of +17, which reflects their dominant form. On the other hand, Paide is in fourth place with a record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses from 14 matches. While they have managed to score 22 goals, their defence has been less reliable, allowing 19 goals and resulting in a modest goal difference of +3. Their recent form has not been encouraging, with only one win in their last five matches, indicating potential struggles as they face a strong Flora side. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Flora Tallinn, with a projected score of 2-0. One caveat to consider is that if Paide can tighten their defence and convert scoring opportunities, they may pose a greater challenge than recent form indicates. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by the SureTipsPro Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.96 | 3.65 | 3.06 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.59 | 2.15 | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.77 | 4.08 | 2.87 | 1.58 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 1.87 | 3.23 | 3.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.12 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.59 | 2.19 | |
| 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 1.64 | 2.05 | 1.54 | 2.23 | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.40 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.62 | 2.05 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.85 | 4.55 | 3.05 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 1.54 | 1.81 | 1.45 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 12 | 32 | 42 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 15 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 30 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 29 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Paide | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 25 | WDDLL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 20 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 | DWDWL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 16 | LWLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 39 | -28 | 10 | DLLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 1-3 and beat Flora Tallinn 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 1D 7L from the last 26 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Kalju Nomme 1-1 and lost to Trans Narva 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 8L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Kulljastinen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Kulljastinen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 2.1 goals per match at home; Paide 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.