Kalju Nomme vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Paide, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the second-placed team in the Meistriliiga, Kalju Nomme has demonstrated solid form this season, with nine wins in 15 matches. They have scored 27 goals while conceding only 11, showcasing a strong goal difference of 16. Despite experiencing a mixed form recently, their overall performance positions them as a formidable contender. In contrast, Paide sits in fourth place with six wins from their 15 matches. Their goal-scoring has been less impressive, with 23 goals for and 20 against, resulting in a modest goal difference of three. The team has struggled recently, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, which highlights their current difficulties in maintaining consistent performance. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Kalju Nomme, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one potential caveat is that if Paide can tighten their defensive play and find any offensive rhythm, they could pose a challenge to Kalju Nomme's aspirations. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.77 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| 2.05 | 3.48 | 2.99 | 1.67 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 2.21 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.15 | 3.54 | 3.15 | 1.68 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.97 | 3.01 | 2.93 | 1.88 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.07 | 3.48 | 3.04 | 1.67 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 2.25 | |
| 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 1.74 | 1.92 | 1.61 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.15 | 3.00 | 1.82 | 1.82 | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 1.55 | 1.80 | 1.45 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Kalju Nomme and Paide, Paide has won 5 times, Kalju Nomme has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight matches, as evidenced by the 1-1 draws and a narrow 1-0 victory for Paide. However, Paide has had some dominant performances, including a 4-0 win and a 2-0 victory. Kalju Nomme's last win against Paide was in a cup match in March 2025, highlighting that they have struggled to secure victories in their recent league encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 | Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalju Nomme have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Linfield 1-0 and drew with Paide 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 7L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Paide 1-1 and drew with Kalju Nomme 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 8L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalju Nomme
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Osomkov has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by G. Osomkov to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kalju Nomme average 1.8 goals per match at home; Paide 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.