Vaprus vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 6th place in the Meistriliiga with 19 points from 14 matches, showing a mixed season with six wins, one draw, and seven losses. Their goal difference of -10 reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, but their recent form, including three wins in their last five matches, suggests a team on the upswing. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned 9th with 13 points, having won four, drawn one, and lost nine of their matches this season. Their performance has been less consistent, with only one win in their last five games, which includes three consecutive losses. This indicates a struggle to find form, and their goal tally of 14 goals underscores their difficulties in attacking. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Vaprus, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential pitfall for Vaprus could be their defensive frailties, which may allow Kuressaare to capitalize if they can find their attacking rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, with insights from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model focusing on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Vaprus have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Vaprus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.45 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 1.83 | 3.55 | 3.54 | 1.60 | 2.19 | 1.54 | 2.25 | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.85 | 3.79 | 3.56 | 1.59 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.11 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.85 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.19 | 1.54 | 2.29 | |
| 1.84 | 3.30 | 3.95 | 1.74 | 1.96 | 1.60 | 2.12 | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.62 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 1.83 | 3.65 | 3.45 | 1.57 | 2.12 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.64 | 2.10 | 1.61 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.25 | 3.13 | 1.50 | 1.88 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Vaprus and Kuressaare, Vaprus has won 5 times, while Kuressaare has claimed 3 victories, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Vaprus achieving a notable 9-2 win in a friendly, yet most league encounters have been closely contested, often decided by a single goal. The matches feature a blend of low-scoring outcomes and a few higher-scoring games, suggesting a competitive rivalry. Kuressaare's last win came over a year ago, which may influence their confidence in upcoming fixtures.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 |  Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vaprus 1-0 and lost to Vaprus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 15L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 1-0 and beat Laagri 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 15L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jakobson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jakobson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.5 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vaprus have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 36% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Vaprus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.