Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Serie A standings, Palmeiras has demonstrated consistent form throughout the season, with 14 wins from 21 matches and a strong goal difference of +22. Their offensive prowess is highlighted by 38 goals scored, while their defence has been significantly solid, conceding only 16 goals. Fluminense, in contrast, occupies the fourth position in the league, having earned 34 points from their 21 games. They have struggled to secure victories recently, managing just one win in their last five matches, with four draws marking their form. Their goal difference of +5 indicates a less potent attack compared to Palmeiras, which could be a crucial factor in this matchup. According to the model output, Palmeiras has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Fluminense's chances stand at around 20%. A key market percentage to note is Palmeiras being favoured to win by 1 goal. However, an honest caveat is that if Fluminense can leverage their home advantage effectively and disrupt Palmeiras' rhythm, they could pose a challenge. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model assessing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of matches. Palmeiras average 1.8 goals per game.
Fluminense manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.82 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.8% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.72 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.89 | 3.05 | 2.51 | 2.27 | 1.61 | 1.89 | 1.79 | |
| 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 2.98 | 3.17 | 2.61 | 2.37 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 2.88 | 2.99 | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.60 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.98 | 3.14 | 2.58 | 2.31 | 1.64 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.83 | |
| 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.62 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.13 | 2.50 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fluminense leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras over the last 10 matches shows Fluminense winning 4 times, with 3 draws and Palmeiras also winning 3 times. This indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, with no side dominating. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, including three matches ending in draws and several one-goal margins. Notably, both teams have had narrow victories, with only one instance of a team winning by more than one goal. The last victory for Palmeiras came in February 2026, suggesting that Fluminense has had the upper hand more recently in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 14 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Palmeiras 3-2 and drew with Independ. Rivadavia 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 15D 8L from the last 41 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 10 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Palmeiras 3-2 and lost to Fortaleza EC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 9D 5L from the last 38 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersFluminense5
Palmeiras3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Daronco has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
