HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction, Tips & Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Match Preview
The model favours Ajax to win against HNK Hajduk Split, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Ajax enters this match with a stronger recent form, having achieved three wins in their last five outings. While both teams are starting their UEFA Europa Conference League campaign, Ajax’s position in the standings is notably higher, currently sitting at 9th place, suggesting a more competitive edge. HNK Hajduk Split, on the other hand, has a mixed recent form with four wins and one loss in their last five matches. However, it is important to note that they have yet to play any league matches this season, which can impact their readiness and rhythm for this fixture. The lack of competitive play could be a disadvantage as they face a team that has already established some momentum. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Ajax, alongside the projected score of 2-1. A key market to watch is Ajax's odds for a win, which reflect their status as the favourite. However, the caveat here is that both teams are entering the competition without any prior matches this season, meaning either side could surprise. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Ajax have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Ajax win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Ajax are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.90 | 4.45 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 5.66 | 4.56 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 5.03 | 4.04 | 1.43 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.15 | |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.48 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 6.11 | 4.61 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 5.60 | 4.65 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.45 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax stands at one match with no wins for either side, resulting in a draw. The solitary fixture ended in a scoreless draw, indicating a tightly contested encounter without any goals. This lack of scoring suggests that both teams were evenly matched in that meeting, and it has been a while since either side has claimed victory over the other in this specific matchup.
UEFA Europa Conference League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Riga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHNK Hajduk Split have won 7 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 and beat HNK Hajduk Split 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 5L from the last 24 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ajax have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fortuna Sittard 1-5 and beat Telstar 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 15D 7L from the last 42 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHNK Hajduk Split
No reported absences
Ajax
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
HNK Hajduk Split have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Ajax 7.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ajax have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 8.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ajax player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
