JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II Prediction, Tips & Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II
Match Preview
The model favours Riga FC II to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 8th in the league, Riga FC II has shown a stronger form this season compared to their opponents. With 6 wins from 16 matches, they have accumulated 20 points, scoring 23 goals and conceding 30, resulting in a goal difference of -7. Their recent form, with two wins in their last five matches, indicates a team that is starting to find its rhythm. In contrast, JFK Ventspils sits at the bottom half of the table in 12th place with only 11 points from 16 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses reveals a struggle to convert opportunities into points, with 18 goals scored and 28 goals conceded, leading to a goal difference of -10. Their recent form has not been encouraging, with just one win in their last five outings, suggesting difficulties in defense and attack. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Riga FC II, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage indicates a strong likelihood of Riga FC II winning. However, as with any match, unexpected variables such as injuries or an off day for key players could impact the outcome. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 2-0)In the last seven matches between JFK Ventspils and Riga FC II, JFK Ventspils has won 0 times, with 5 draws and 2 victories for Riga FC II. The scorelines suggest a generally tight contest, as evidenced by the four matches ending in draws and a couple of low-scoring results, including three 0-0 draws. However, Riga FC II has managed to secure two heavier wins, including a notable 4-0 victory. JFK Ventspils has not won against Riga FC II in this period, highlighting their struggle to find success in recent encounters.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 57 | 44 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 15 | 33 | 44 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 39 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 31 | WWDDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 25 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 20 | LDLWW |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | -26 | 10 | LLWLW |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 48 | -35 | 5 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJFK Ventspils have won 2 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Super Nova 2 0-2 and lost to Smiltene 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 14L from the last 28 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Riga FC II have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Riga FC II 2-0 and lost to Valmiera / BSS 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 12L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Riga FC II
No reported absences
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.