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Smiltene vs Metta / LU Prediction, Tips & Odds

Smiltene vs Metta / LU

1. LigaRegular Season - 18
Smiltene
#13 · 1. Liga
LWLWL
VS
Metta / LU
#1 · 1. Liga
LWDWW

Match Preview

The model favours Metta / LU to win, projecting a scoreline of 3-0 against Smiltene. Metta / LU currently sits at the top of the league with an impressive record of 13 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss from 16 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, having netted 69 goals while conceding only 14, leading to a remarkable goal difference of +55. This dominance in both attack and defence has helped them accumulate 41 points. On the other hand, Smiltene is struggling in 13th place with only 10 points from 16 matches, having won just 2, drawn 4, and lost 10. Their goal difference of -24 highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 43 goals while scoring only 19. With recent form showing just 2 wins in their last 5 matches, the team faces significant challenges as they look to improve their standing. According to the model, Metta / LU has a high win probability, reflecting their strong season performance, while Smiltene's prospects appear grim. However, it is important to note that unexpected events, such as injuries or red cards, could alter the course of the match. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Metta / LU leads 1-0)
0 Smiltene0 Draw1 Metta / LU
25 Apr
Metta / LU
8-0
Smiltene
1. Liga

Metta / LU hold the edge in this fixture, winning 1 of the last 1 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Smiltene wins. The record points to a tie Metta / LU have controlled for years, though the draws show Smiltene have at times kept it tight.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
17142171145744
WWDWW
2
Valmiera / BSS
17142148153344
WWWWW
3
Leevon / PPK
17123231201139
WWWWW
4
Riga Mariners
16105134151935
WWDLW
5
JDFS Alberts
1794435241131
WWDDW
6
Mārupe
188192930-125
LWLLW
12
JFK Ventspils
162591828-1011
LLDLW
13
Smiltene
1724112147-2610
LLWLW
14
Rēzekne FA
1712141348-355
LLLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
SmilteneHome
1W2D5L
8 playedGF 12 · GA 210.63 pts/game
Metta / LUAway
6W2D0L
8 playedGF 20 · GA 62.50 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
SmilteneMetta / LU
1.39Goals p.g.3.57
2.46Goals conceded p.g.1.1
7%Clean sheets37%
14%Win rate70%
3.86Avg goals in match4.67
Smiltene
Recent Form

Smiltene have won 1 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 1-4 and lost to Rīgas FS II 3-5.

Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 17L from the last 28 games (14% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: SmilteneAll competitions
08 Aug
Smiltene
1-4
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
02 Aug
JFK Ventspils
1-2
Smiltene
1. Liga
25 Jul
Smiltene
3-5
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
19 Jul
Smiltene
1-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
04 Jul
Mārupe
2-1
Smiltene
1. Liga
28 Jun
Smiltene
2-4
Skanste
1. Liga
4
Win
14%
7
Draw
25%
17
Lost
61%
Metta / LU
Recent Form

Metta / LU have won 8 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Metta / LU 4-1 and drew with Riga FC II 2-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 21W 3D 6L from the last 30 games (70% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Metta / LUAll competitions
16 Aug
Riga
4-1
Metta / LU
Cup
08 Aug
Metta / LU
12-1
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
01 Aug
Riga FC II
2-2
Metta / LU
1. Liga
27 Jul
Metta / LU
9-0
Tukums II
1. Liga
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
10 Jul
Metta / LU
3-1
Spēks
Cup
21
Win
70%
3
Draw
10%
6
Lost
20%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Smiltene

No reported absences

Metta / LU

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.