Today's top picks and bookie offers, free on TelegramToday's top picks, free on TelegramJoin

Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts Prediction, Tips & Odds

Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts

1. LigaRegular Season - 18
Mārupe
#6 · 1. Liga
WLLWL
VS
JDFS Alberts
#5 · 1. Liga
WWDDW

Match Preview

The model favours JDFS Alberts to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 5th in the league, JDFS Alberts has shown consistent form this season with 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses from 16 matches, accumulating 28 points. Their goal difference of +9 highlights a solid attacking capability, having scored 32 goals while conceding only 23, making them a formidable opponent. Mārupe, sitting in 6th place with 25 points from 17 matches, has had a more inconsistent season, recording 8 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses. Their goal difference of +2 indicates a more balanced but less potent attack, with 28 goals scored but 26 conceded. Recent form has not been in their favour, with only 2 wins in their last 5 matches, suggesting they may struggle to maintain momentum against a stronger opponent. The model gives JDFS Alberts a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that Mārupe's home advantage could play a significant role, potentially impacting the match's outcome. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these insights.

Head to Head

Last 5 Meetings (JDFS Alberts leads 4-1)
1 Mārupe0 Draw4 JDFS Alberts
25 Apr
JDFS Alberts
2-1
Mārupe
1. Liga
Sept 25
Mārupe
2-1
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
May 25
JDFS Alberts
1-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
Aug 24
JDFS Alberts
1-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
Apr 24
Mārupe
0-1
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga

JDFS Alberts hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings with 0 draws and 1 Mārupe win. The record points to a tie JDFS Alberts have controlled for years, though the draws show Mārupe have at times kept it tight.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
17142171145744
WWDWW
2
Valmiera / BSS
17142148153344
WWWWW
3
Leevon / PPK
17123231201139
WWWWW
4
Riga Mariners
16105134151935
WWDLW
5
JDFS Alberts
1794435241131
WWDDW
6
Mārupe
188192930-125
LWLLW
12
JFK Ventspils
162591828-1011
LLDLW
13
Smiltene
1724112147-2610
LLWLW
14
Rēzekne FA
1712141348-355
LLLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
MārupeHome
4W0D5L
9 playedGF 16 · GA 161.33 pts/game
JDFS AlbertsAway
4W2D3L
9 playedGF 18 · GA 161.56 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
MārupeJDFS Alberts
1.43Goals p.g.2.03
1.53Goals conceded p.g.1.14
20%Clean sheets31%
40%Win rate55%
2.97Avg goals in match3.17
Mārupe
Recent Form

Mārupe have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Super Nova 2 2-1 and lost to Leevon / PPK 0-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 12W 2D 16L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: MārupeAll competitions
15 Aug
Mārupe
2-1
Super Nova 2
1. Liga
08 Aug
Mārupe
0-1
Leevon / PPK
1. Liga
01 Aug
Skanste
4-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
25 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
12 Jul
Mārupe
0-1
Grobiņa
Cup
12
Win
40%
2
Draw
7%
16
Lost
53%
JDFS Alberts
Recent Form

JDFS Alberts have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat JDFS Alberts 1-3 and drew with Tukums II 1-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 7L from the last 29 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: JDFS AlbertsAll competitions
22 Aug
Rīgas FS II
1-3
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
08 Aug
JDFS Alberts
2-0
Riga FC II
1. Liga
03 Aug
Tukums II
1-1
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
25 Jul
JDFS Alberts
1-1
Super Nova 2
1. Liga
18 Jul
JFK Ventspils
1-3
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
04 Jul
JDFS Alberts
0-4
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
16
Win
55%
6
Draw
21%
7
Lost
24%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Mārupe

No reported absences

JDFS Alberts

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.