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Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II Prediction, Tips & Odds

Riga Mariners vs Rīgas FS II

1. LigaRegular Season - 18
Riga Mariners
#4 · 1. Liga
WWDLD
VS
Rīgas FS II
#11 · 1. Liga
LLLWL

Match Preview

The model favours Riga Mariners to win against Rīgas FS II, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned fourth in the league, Riga Mariners have demonstrated strong form this season with ten wins, five draws, and only one loss from 16 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 34 goals while conceding just 15, resulting in a positive goal difference of 19. This solid defensive record, coupled with their attacking prowess, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Rīgas FS II finds themselves in a challenging position, sitting 10th in the standings with just three wins out of 16 matches. Their overall season has been marked by inconsistency, with a negative goal difference of -23, having conceded 45 goals while scoring only 22. Recent form has not been encouraging either, with only one win in their last five matches, highlighting their struggles to compete effectively in the league. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Riga Mariners, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market percentage to consider is their likelihood of keeping a clean sheet, which stands at 55%. However, if Rīgas FS II can find a way to exploit any lapses in the Mariners' defence, they could pose a threat. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 3 Meetings (Riga Mariners leads 3-0)
3 Riga Mariners0 Draw0 Rīgas FS II
25 Apr
Rīgas FS II
1-2
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
Nov 25
Riga Mariners
4-3
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
Jul 25
Rīgas FS II
1-3
Riga Mariners
1. Liga

Riga Mariners hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Rīgas FS II wins. The record points to a tie Riga Mariners have controlled for years, though the draws show Rīgas FS II have at times kept it tight.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
17142171145744
WWDWW
2
Valmiera / BSS
17142148153344
WWWWW
3
Leevon / PPK
17123231201139
WWWWW
4
Riga Mariners
16105134151935
WWDLW
5
JDFS Alberts
1794435241131
WWDDW
6
Mārupe
188192930-125
LWLLW
11
Rīgas FS II
1733112348-2512
LLLWL
12
JFK Ventspils
162591828-1011
LLDLW
13
Smiltene
1724112147-2610
LLWLW
14
Rēzekne FA
1712141348-355
LLLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Riga MarinersHome
4W4D0L
8 playedGF 16 · GA 92.00 pts/game
Rīgas FS IIAway
2W1D5L
8 playedGF 11 · GA 260.88 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Riga MarinersRīgas FS II
2.59Goals p.g.1.56
1.21Goals conceded p.g.2.22
34%Clean sheets22%
59%Win rate26%
3.79Avg goals in match3.78
Riga Mariners
Recent Form

Riga Mariners have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 4-2 and drew with JFK Ventspils 1-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 3L from the last 29 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Riga MarinersAll competitions
09 Aug
Riga Mariners
4-2
Tukums II
1. Liga
31 Jul
Super Nova 2
0-3
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
25 Jul
Riga Mariners
1-1
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
18 Jul
Leevon / PPK
2-1
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3-3
BFC Daugavpils
Cup
04 Jul
JDFS Alberts
0-4
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
17
Win
59%
9
Draw
31%
3
Lost
10%
Rīgas FS II
Recent Form

Rīgas FS II have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Metta / LU 12-1 and lost to Valmiera / BSS 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 14L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Rīgas FS IIAll competitions
22 Aug
Rīgas FS II
1-3
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
08 Aug
Metta / LU
12-1
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
01 Aug
Valmiera / BSS
2-1
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
25 Jul
Smiltene
3-5
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
20 Jul
Tukums II
2-0
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
05 Jul
Rīgas FS II
1-1
Super Nova 2
1. Liga
7
Win
26%
6
Draw
22%
14
Lost
52%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Riga Mariners

No reported absences

Rīgas FS II

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.