JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Tips & Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2
Match Preview
The model favours Super Nova 2 to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Super Nova 2 currently sits in 7th place in the league standings, having accumulated 20 points from 14 matches. Their season has been characterized by a balanced performance, with 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. Key stats indicate they have scored 21 goals while conceding 20, resulting in a goal difference of +1, which reflects their ability to stay competitive in matches. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils is struggling in 11th place with only 11 points from their 14 fixtures. Their record shows just 2 wins alongside 5 draws and 7 losses, leading to a goal difference of -7. The team has found it challenging to convert opportunities into goals, netting only 17 times this season while allowing 24 goals against them, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities. The model predicts Super Nova 2 has a strong win probability, suggesting they should secure the three points in this matchup. However, a caveat is that if JFK Ventspils can tighten their defense and capitalize on any chances created, they could make the game more competitive than the statistics suggest. The full methodology of this prediction, using expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized this in-house model to evaluate the teams' performances throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side, winning 22% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. JFK Ventspils are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova 2| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.44 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.42 | 1.53 | 2.20 | — | — |
Superbet | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.47 | 1.56 | 2.25 | 1.51 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Super Nova 2 leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between JFK Ventspils and Super Nova 2, Super Nova 2 leads with 1 win and JFK Ventspils has yet to secure a victory, resulting in 0 draws. The sole match played ended with a score of 3-1 in favor of Super Nova 2, indicating a decisive win rather than a closely contested fixture. This suggests that Super Nova 2 has had the upper hand in their previous encounter, while JFK Ventspils will be seeking to improve their record against this opponent moving forward.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 13 | 44 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 13 | 27 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 33 | WWWLL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 25 | DDWLW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 22 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 20 | LDLDW |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 11 | LDLWD |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 10 | WLWLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 5 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJFK Ventspils have won 2 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Smiltene 1-2 and lost to JDFS Alberts 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 13L from the last 27 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Super Nova 2 have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with JDFS Alberts 1-1 and lost to Riga FC II 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 5L from the last 15 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Super Nova 2
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JFK Ventspils average 1.3 goals per match at home; Super Nova 2 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 22% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. JFK Ventspils player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.