Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK
Match Preview
The model favours Leevon / PPK to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned third in the league, Leevon / PPK has had a strong season thus far, with a record of nine wins, three draws, and only two losses from 14 matches. They have scored 24 goals while conceding just 17, resulting in a positive goal difference of seven. This solid performance showcases their offensive capabilities and defensive resilience, making them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Mārupe sits in sixth place with a record of seven wins, one draw, and six losses. With 24 goals scored and 20 goals conceded, they maintain a modest goal difference of four. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. While they have shown the ability to find the back of the net, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by a team like Leevon / PPK. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Leevon / PPK, with the confidence that they can secure three points in this matchup. However, Mārupe's home advantage and potential for an unexpected performance could pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates the fixture through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Leevon / PPK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.65 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 3.73 | 4.20 | 1.71 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.51 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.72 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 3.55 | 3.85 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 2.42 | 1.49 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Mārupe leads 2-1)In the last five encounters between Mārupe and Leevon / PPK, Mārupe has won 2 matches, there have been 2 draws, and Leevon / PPK has won 1 match. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three of the matches ending in either a draw or a narrow victory. Notably, the recent matches have tended to be low-scoring, with two 0-0 draws and Mārupe securing two 1-0 wins. Leevon / PPK's last victory in this series dates back to April 2024, where they won 4-2, suggesting a shift in dominance toward Mārupe in the more recent fixtures.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 13 | 44 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 13 | 27 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 33 | WWWLL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 25 | DDWLW |
| 6 | Mārupe | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 22 | LWLWL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 11 | LDLWD |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 10 | WLWLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 5 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMārupe have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Mārupe 0-4 and lost to Mārupe 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 15L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Leevon / PPK have won 7 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 4-1 and beat JFK Ventspils 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 6L from the last 28 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMārupe
No reported absences
Leevon / PPK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mārupe average 1.5 goals per match at home; Leevon / PPK 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 57% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Leevon / PPK player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
