Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis
Match Preview
The model favours Kalamata to win against Aris Thessalonikis, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. As the current leaders in the standings, Kalamata enters this match with strong momentum, having recorded four wins and one draw in their last five matches. Their recent performances suggest a solid attacking capability and a resilient defensive structure, which will be crucial as they aim to maintain their position at the top of the table. On the other hand, Aris Thessalonikis also comes into this fixture with an impressive form, winning all five of their last matches. However, the absence of competitive action this season could pose a challenge as they seek to translate their recent success into league points. Their position in the standings reflects readiness but may lack the competitive edge that Kalamata possesses due to their ongoing form. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Kalamata, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and both teams may take time to find their rhythm. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team combines expected goals and actual results to assess these fixtures comprehensively.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches. Aris Thessalonikis average 1.4 goals per game.
Kalamata manage games at home, conceding just 0.80 goals per match. Aris Thessalonikis score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
Aris Thessalonikis have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Aris Thessalonikis are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.20 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.73 | |
| 3.28 | 2.95 | 2.34 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
| 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 3.38 | 2.98 | 2.46 | 2.40 | 1.61 | — | — | |
| 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.29 | 2.95 | 2.36 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 1.93 | 1.78 | |
| 3.35 | 3.05 | 2.12 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.68 | |
| 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.13 | 2.30 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Aris Thessalonikis leads 1-0)In their only past encounter, Aris Thessalonikis emerged victorious against Kalamata with a score of 3-2. This result indicates a competitive match, as the scoreline was close, reflecting a narrow win for Aris. With only one match to analyze, there is limited historical context, but Kalamata has not yet secured a win against Aris, highlighting a challenge for them moving forward.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalamata have won 5 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kalamata 2-3 and beat Kalamata 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 3L from the last 15 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aris Thessalonikis have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 and beat Kalamata 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 6L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalamata
No reported absences
Aris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Zampalas has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Kalamata have averaged 1.0 corners per match at home; Aris Thessalonikis 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aris Thessalonikis have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aris Thessalonikis player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
