Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Vaprus with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Kalju Nomme currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 38 points from 21 matches. Their season has been strong, highlighted by a solid goal difference of +21, which indicates a robust defensive record, conceding only 17 goals. Their recent form also reflects their competitiveness, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. On the other hand, Vaprus is in fifth place with 27 points, having played the same number of matches. They have struggled defensively this season, conceding 39 goals, which has contributed to a negative goal difference of -10. Their form has been inconsistent lately, with only two wins in the last five matches, which suggests challenges in both scoring and defending. The model gives Kalju Nomme a significant win probability, reflecting their stronger position in the league and overall performance metrics. However, Vaprus could pose a threat if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Kalju. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, and it is based on expected goals and actual results analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kalju Nomme clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.40 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.55 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.41 | 4.76 | 6.25 | 1.48 | 2.54 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.41 | 5.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.37 | 4.50 | 6.79 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.38 | 4.50 | 6.40 | 1.46 | 2.48 | 1.58 | 2.14 | |
| 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.45 | 5.70 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.36 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Kalju Nomme and Vaprus, Kalju Nomme has won 6 times, Vaprus has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including three instances where the winning margin was just one goal. However, Kalju Nomme has recorded some heavier victories, such as a 4-0 win and a 3-0 win. Vaprus last secured a victory over Kalju Nomme in 2026, suggesting a recent trend of Kalju Nomme's dominance. Overall, while the record shows Kalju Nomme's advantage, the matches have often been tightly contested.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | WDLLD |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalju Nomme have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-3 and beat Kalju Nomme 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 9D 12L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 3-2 and drew with Kuressaare 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 19L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalju Nomme
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Pukk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Pukk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kalju Nomme average 2.0 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.