Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. FC Levadia Tallinn currently leads the Meistriliiga, sitting at the top of the standings with 72 points from 29 matches. Their impressive record of 22 wins, 6 draws, and just 1 loss highlights their dominance this season, supported by a remarkable goal difference of +60, thanks to scoring 81 goals while conceding only 21. On the other hand, Kuressaare finds themselves in a challenging position, ranked 8th with 29 points from 29 games. With a record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses, they have struggled to find consistency this season. Their goal difference of -18 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded nearly 50 goals while scoring only 31. Recent form shows they have managed just 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which further complicates their chances against the league leaders. The model output suggests a high probability of a FC Levadia Tallinn victory, with a projected score of 3-0. However, a potential caveat is Kuressaare's home advantage, which could lead to an unexpected performance. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains their in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 10.25 | 5.85 | 1.18 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.69 | 2.00 | |
| 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.15 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 10.80 | 5.85 | 1.19 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.69 | 2.03 | |
Betano | 9.00 | 5.20 | 1.24 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Kuressaare and FC Levadia Tallinn, Kuressaare has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses. The scorelines indicate a significant dominance by FC Levadia Tallinn, with several heavy defeats for Kuressaare, including a notable 0-6 loss. The lone draw occurred in a tightly contested match, while the majority of fixtures have featured low-scoring outcomes, often ending in 1-2 or 2-0. Kuressaare's last win against FC Levadia Tallinn is not recorded in this sample, highlighting a long-standing struggle against this opponent.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 82 | 21 | 61 | 75 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 55 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Paide | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | WLWWL |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 51 | DLWWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 31 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 31 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 41 | WWDWL |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 35 | WWDLL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 31 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 68 | -44 | 20 | LDDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 10 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 2-0 and beat Kuressaare 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 20L from the last 43 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Levadia Tallinn have won 16 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Trans Narva 1-1 and beat Paide 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 32W 8D 5L from the last 45 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
FC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Lorenz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Lorenz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.5 goals per match at home; FC Levadia Tallinn 2.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 71% of their matches and averaging 2.8 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.