Paide vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Paide currently sits in 3rd place in the Meistriliiga standings, showcasing a strong season with 15 wins from 29 matches. They have scored 48 goals while conceding 36, resulting in a positive goal difference of 12. Despite a mixed recent form of three wins and two losses in their last five matches, their overall performance has been solid, indicating their capacity to secure points against lower-ranked teams. On the other hand, Trans Narva is struggling at the bottom of the table in 10th place, having only managed 5 wins throughout the season. Their form has not improved, as they have failed to win in their last five matches, recording three losses and two draws. With just 22 goals scored and a concerning 65 goals conceded, their goal difference of -43 highlights significant defensive issues that could be exploited by a team like Paide. The model indicates a high win probability for Paide, reflecting their stronger season performance. However, one caveat is that if Trans Narva can tighten their defense and capitalize on any mistakes from Paide, they might pose an unexpected challenge. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Paide clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.47 | 4.10 | 5.15 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 2.04 | |
| 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.48 | 4.10 | 5.36 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 2.07 | |
Betano | 1.52 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.60 | 2.12 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Paide and Trans Narva, Trans Narva has won 5 times, Paide has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; however, Trans Narva has edged the series with a slight lead in victories. Notably, four of the matches ended with a one-goal margin, highlighting the tight nature of the encounters. The most recent match saw Trans Narva winning 1-0, while Paide's last victory was a 3-0 win in 2024, suggesting a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes in their history.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 82 | 21 | 61 | 75 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 55 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Paide | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | WLWWL |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 51 | DLWWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 31 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 31 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 41 | WWDWL |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 35 | WWDLL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 31 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 68 | -44 | 20 | LDDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 16 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 2-1 and lost to Laagri 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 10D 15L from the last 48 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Trans Narva 2-2 and lost to Kalju Nomme 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 24L from the last 44 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Pukk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Pukk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.7 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 1.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.