Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kalju Nomme is currently in fourth place in the Meistriliiga, showcasing a strong season with 15 wins from 29 matches. Their goal difference of +25 indicates a solid attack and a resilient defence, having scored 52 goals while conceding only 27. Despite a recent dip in form with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, Kalju Nomme remains a competitive side. On the other hand, Nõmme United is positioned ninth in the league and has struggled throughout the season, managing only 9 wins and suffering 19 losses from 29 games. Their goal difference of -21 reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 68 goals. Nõmme United has also had a mixed bag of results lately, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, which further complicates their chances of turning the tide against a stronger opponent. The model indicates that Kalju Nomme has a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, Nõmme United could pose an unexpected challenge if they manage to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Kalju. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.20 | 3.98 | 1.59 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.41 | 2.60 | |
| 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 4.25 | 4.15 | 1.66 | 1.43 | 2.69 | — | — | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.65 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 4.28 | 3.98 | 1.61 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.41 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.47 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.55 | 1.33 | 2.25 | 1.33 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 3-0)The head-to-head record between Nõmme United and Kalju Nomme shows 0 wins for Nõmme United, 2 draws, and 3 wins for Kalju Nomme. The scorelines indicate a notable dominance by Kalju Nomme, highlighted by two heavy victories of 7-1 and 4-0, alongside a 3-0 win. Although there have been two draws, both were low-scoring at 1-1 and 0-0, suggesting that when Nõmme United has managed to avoid defeat, it was in tightly contested matches. Nõmme United has not won against Kalju Nomme in their last five encounters, reflecting a challenging trend for them.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 82 | 21 | 61 | 75 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 55 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Paide | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 51 | DLWWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 31 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 31 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 41 | WWDWL |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 35 | WWDLL |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 31 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 68 | -44 | 20 | LDDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 8 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 13. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 1-3 and lost to Nõmme United 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 2D 24L from the last 43 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 12 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Kalju Nomme 2-2 and beat Tammeka 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 10D 14L from the last 45 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jaanovits has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jaanovits to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.1 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 47% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.