Laagri vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Laagri vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Laagri to win this match against Vaprus, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Laagri has managed to secure 11 wins from 29 matches this season, contributing to a goal difference of -7. Their form has been mixed recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. However, their ability to score 40 goals this season suggests a competitive attacking threat, which could prove pivotal. On the other hand, Vaprus is positioned just below Laagri in 7th place, having won 10 of their 29 games. Their season has been marked by a struggle in defence, as indicated by their -18 goal difference, having conceded 57 goals. Despite a recent upturn in form with two wins in their last five matches, Vaprus has often found it challenging to maintain consistency throughout the season, which could hinder their chances against Laagri. The model gives Laagri a win probability of approximately 55%, while Vaprus sits at around 25%. The key market percentage suggests Laagri is the favourite at roughly 50% to win the match. However, a potential caveat is Laagri's tendency to be inconsistent, which might open the door for Vaprus to exploit any defensive lapses. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, the full methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which relies on expected goals and actual results across the season, is available in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Laagri have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Laagri are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Laagri vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.08 | 3.68 | 2.73 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 2.67 | |
| 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.10 | 3.68 | 2.79 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 2.73 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 2.75 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Laagri and Vaprus, Vaprus has a slight edge with 4 wins compared to Laagri's 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight encounters, including five matches ending with a one-goal difference. Notably, there have also been instances of heavier defeats, such as Vaprus's 4-0 victory over Laagri. The most recent match ended in a goalless draw, highlighting a potential shift towards tighter contests. Laagri last won against Vaprus in their friendly encounter earlier this year, which adds an interesting dynamic to their recent head-to-head history.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 82 | 21 | 61 | 75 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 55 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Paide | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | WLWWL |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 51 | DLWWL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 31 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 6 | Laagri | 31 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 41 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 36 | DDLLL |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 35 | WWDLL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 31 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 68 | -44 | 20 | LDDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLaagri have won 14 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 2-0 and drew with Kuressaare 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 5D 17L from the last 43 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 3-2 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 21L from the last 43 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLaagri
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Porila has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Porila to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Laagri average 2.0 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Laagri have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 49% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Laagri player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.