Kuressaare vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings and has demonstrated solid form throughout the season. With 15 wins from 30 matches, they have accumulated 51 points, scoring 48 goals while conceding 37. Their positive goal difference of 11 highlights their offensive strength, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Kuressaare is positioned eighth in the league with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses, resulting in 32 points. Their goal difference of -16 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 49 goals while scoring only 33. Kuressaare's recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, which may hinder their chances against a stronger Paide side. The model gives Paide a win probability of approximately 60%, suggesting a clear advantage in this matchup. However, Kuressaare could capitalize on any lapses in Paide's defence, making this an unpredictable fixture. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team consistently applies this method to deliver data-driven insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.90 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.59 | 2.15 | |
| 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.89 | 3.71 | 1.81 | 1.66 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.70 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.98 | 3.65 | 1.72 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.59 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 1.60 | 2.10 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Kuressaare and Paide, Paide has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in draws and Kuressaare failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a lopsided rivalry, with Paide achieving several dominant wins, including a notable 5-1 victory. Most of the matches have been relatively tight, as evidenced by the three draws and narrow victories, but Kuressaare has not won against Paide in this stretch. The lack of wins for Kuressaare suggests a challenging matchup for them historically.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0-2 and beat Flora Tallinn 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 21L from the last 44 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Paide have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 1-0 and beat Tammeka 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 10D 15L from the last 48 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.5 goals per match at home; Paide 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. They put 1.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.