Nõmme United vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win this match against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 7th place in the Meistriliiga, with a record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 15 losses. They have scored 41 goals while conceding 59, resulting in a goal difference of -18. Despite a mixed form in recent matches, Vaprus has managed to secure 1 win and 1 draw in their last five games, indicating some resilience. On the other hand, Nõmme United is positioned 9th in the league, with a troubling record of 9 wins, 1 draw, and 20 losses. Their goal difference stands at -25, having scored 47 goals but conceded 72. Nõmme United has only managed to win once in their last five matches, reflecting their struggles this season. This lack of consistency and defensive vulnerabilities could be detrimental against a team like Vaprus. The model gives Vaprus a win probability of approximately 55% for this match. While they are favoured to take the three points, a potential caveat is their defensive record, which could allow Nõmme United to capitalize on any mistakes. For a detailed explanation of our prediction process, please refer to the “How We Reached This Prediction” section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Nõmme United have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Nõmme United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.01 | 3.45 | 3.02 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.64 | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.03 | 3.58 | 3.26 | 1.48 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.05 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Nõmme United and Vaprus, Vaprus leads with 7 wins to Nõmme United's 3, with no draws recorded. The scorelines reveal a mix of outcomes, including a heavy 7-1 win for Nõmme United and a 7-0 victory for Vaprus, indicating some one-sided contests. Vaprus has consistently found success, particularly in recent matches, with Nõmme United's last victory coming in May 2024. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests a dominant trend in favor of Vaprus, making it clear that they have historically been the stronger side in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 36 | LDDLL |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 12. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kalju Nomme 3-0 and lost to Flora Tallinn 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 23L from the last 43 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paide 2-0 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 21L from the last 43 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.1 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Nõmme United have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Nõmme United player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.