Tammeka vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tammeka vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Tammeka currently sits in 5th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 47 points from 30 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid home record, with 15 wins and a goal difference of -6. Recent form shows they have secured three wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive momentum as they look to solidify their position in the top half of the table. In contrast, Trans Narva is struggling at the bottom of the league in 10th place, with only 20 points from 30 games. Their season has been challenging, as evidenced by their poor goal difference of -43, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form, with no wins in the last five matches, suggests they are finding it difficult to turn draws into victories, which could further complicate their battle against relegation. According to the model, Tammeka has a strong win probability of approximately 65%. However, a key caveat is that if Trans Narva can score early or disrupt Tammeka's rhythm, the match could take an unexpected turn. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tammeka vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.01 | 3.50 | 2.98 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.53 | 2.28 | |
| 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.03 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.53 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.60 | 2.10 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Tammeka and Trans Narva shows 4 wins for Tammeka, 1 draw, and 5 wins for Trans Narva. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches featuring narrow margins, including a notable 3-3 draw. However, Trans Narva has secured heavier victories, such as a 5-0 win and a 4-0 win against Tammeka. Tammeka's last win was 5 matches ago, suggesting they have struggled recently against Trans Narva. Overall, while both teams have had their successes, Trans Narva has the edge in this matchup historically.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTammeka have won 12 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 4-0 and beat Tammeka 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 3D 17L from the last 42 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 2-1 and drew with Vaprus 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 26L from the last 45 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTammeka
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tammeka average 1.9 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 52% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.